Over 40 million TRUMP tokens are set to be unlocked on April 17th. As this unlock event looms closer, investors and market watchers are questioning: will this sudden influx of tokens lead to a sharp price drop? Let's delve into the implications and potential scenarios.
April 17, 2025, will mark a crucial milestone for the TRUMP token, with its first major unlocking from the vesting schedule. According to data shared by Messari, this event will involve the release of 40 million tokens, estimated at $413 million, representing 20% of the current circulating supply.
— SolanaFloor (@SolanaFloor) April 1, 2025
News: The first major token unlock for $TRUMP, the memecoin launched by U.S. President Trump, is scheduled for April 17.
A total of 40 million tokens—worth $413 million and representing 20% of the circulating supply—will be released. pic.twitter.com/vp5Rf9qcM8
This unlocking comes at a time when the $TRUMP token has a market capitalization of $2.07 billion, with a circulating supply of 200 million tokens, according to CoinGecko data. However, the token has recently experienced a 11.2% decrease over the last 7 days, underperforming compared to the overall crypto market, which only saw a 6.1% decline during the same period.
Token unlocks are well-known events for their potential to impact the prices of cryptocurrencies. When a large amount of tokens is released into the market, the sudden increase in supply can lead to downward pressure on the price if demand does not keep up.
A HackerNoon study, based on the analysis of 5,000 unlock events, shows that:
With only 20% of the total supply of $TRUMP currently in circulation, this token is still in the early stage of its distribution schedule, making it especially vulnerable to fluctuations related to this unlock.
Many analysts, like Kaizen (@KAIZ3NS on X), anticipate significant selling pressure. Kaizen stated that he plans to “short” $TRUMP before the unlock, anticipating a potential drop to zero. This view is reinforced by the fact that teams or early investors holding these unlocked tokens may seek to sell to realize profits, especially after a recent 11.2% price decline.
X user, @DeFiant_Marine, also commented, “I would be tempted to short, but in this market, nothing makes sense… I bet it will rise nonetheless.” This sentiment illustrates the uncertainty surrounding this event.
However, the crypto market is known to defy expectations. As highlighted by @sgleahy in response to Kaizen, TRUMP token traders may not be solely motivated by profit maximization. Some investors may seek to gain favor within the ecosystem or support the project for ideological reasons, which could mitigate the downside impact of the unlock.
Furthermore, if demand for the memecoin TRUMP remains strong – notably with increasing trading volumes ($324 million in 24 hours, up by 2.4% according to CoinGecko) – the market could absorb some of this new supply without causing a crash.
But this will also largely depend on market conditions. Recently, listing announcements (such as popcat) no longer generate the same interest.
As April 17 approaches, all eyes will be on $TRUMP. Will this unlock be the trigger for a crash, or will the market surprise once again? One thing is certain: volatility will be present.
Some analysts expect a forthcoming TRUMP rebound. In the event of a Bitcoin rise, TRUMP could quickly target its 50-day moving average at $11, representing an 8% increase. However, a break below the support at $9.86 would initiate a new decline.
Here is a practical guide to buy TRUMP in case of a bullish rebound:
Charles Ledoux is a Bitcoin and blockchain technology specialist. A graduate of the Crypto Academy, he has been a Bitcoin miner for over a year. He has written numerous masterclasses to educate newcomers to the industry and has authored over 2,000 articles on cryptocurrency. Now, he aims to share his passion for crypto through his articles for InvestX.
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