As Bitcoin continues its recent surge, a stark contrast emerges in the market : retail investors seem to be cashing out, while whales seize the opportunity to accumulate. What does this mean for the future of the market ?
Retail investor inflows to Binance have increased significantly in recent weeks, jumping from 12 billion to over 16 billion dollars. This behavior resembles April 2025, when Bitcoin surged from 78,000 to 111,000 dollars, but retail traders exited prematurely, missing out on future gains.
Binance’s Net Volume Taker has turned distinctly negative, reflecting the growing dominance of sellers in the market. Despite Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs, retail investors appear hesitant and lack confidence in the sustainability of the recovery.
Indeed, the SOPR for short-term holders has dropped sharply since yesterday, indicating selling at a loss and thus capitulation from new holders. Additionally, the Bollinger band of the MVRV for STH indicates support at 117,800 dollars.
Bitcoin’s drop below this threshold has triggered panic among some new holders. However, BTC is now trading at 118,400 dollars, and whales have likely helped support the price and absorb these sales.
Meanwhile, whales show no signs of hesitation. According to analyst Amr Taha, they have withdrawn more than 600 million dollars in crypto from centralized exchanges, including 400 million dollars in ETH and 200 million dollars in BTC over the past 24 hours.
These massive withdrawals typically reflect strong accumulation intent, as whales prefer to hold assets off-exchange when anticipating long-term appreciation. Unlike retail investors, institutional investors appear to be betting on Bitcoin’s continued rise.
The current trend suggests a growing division between retail and institutional investors, with potential implications for the market in the medium term. While retail investors succumb to the temptation of short-term gains, whales are quietly accumulating, positioning their bets on long-term growth.
If this dynamic persists, the market could once again shift in favor of institutional investors, offering interesting opportunities for savvy traders and investors.
Charles Ledoux is a Bitcoin and blockchain technology specialist. A graduate of the Crypto Academy, he has been a Bitcoin miner for over a year. He has written numerous masterclasses to educate newcomers to the industry and has authored over 2,000 articles on cryptocurrency. Now, he aims to share his passion for crypto through his articles for InvestX.
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