Bitcoin surpasses the $92,000 mark as Asian markets open in the green, fueled by the euphoria of the new historic high of the S&P 500. Yet, behind this apparent strength lie worrisome technical signals: over $220 million in liquidations and a glaring lack of buyers as support. Asian traders now navigate an environment where each rally seems fragile, while US ETF flows provide temporary but potentially unstable support.
Bitcoin’s push above $92,000 on Friday morning during Asian trading hours might appear encouraging at first glance, with a 2.4% gain over 24 hours. But the devil is in the positioning details. Over $220 million in leveraged long positions were liquidated, a figure that perfectly illustrates the current vulnerability of the crypto market.
Samer Hasn, senior analyst at XS.com, highlights a crucial point: the market still lacks committed buyers willing to support the price during pullbacks. This dynamic creates a paradoxical situation where Bitcoin advances technically, but without the support structure needed to validate a genuine bullish reversal. Leveraged traders are literally getting swept out instead of doubling down on their positions, a typical pattern of distribution phases rather than accumulation.
This evacuation of speculative leverage leaves the market in an erratic state, even as overall risk sentiment improves. Altcoins are following with modest gains: Ethereum at $3,248 (+0.7%), XRP at $2.04 (+1.6%), and total crypto market capitalization reaching $3.23 trillion (+1.9%). These figures reflect more of a technical bounce than a conviction-driven move.
A positive element is emerging, however, from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. According to SoSo Value data, over $223 million in net inflows were recorded on Thursday, the highest figure in twenty days. This injection of institutional capital could theoretically serve as a bullish catalyst, but the current context warrants caution.
These flows may reflect short-term tactical repositioning rather than sustained institutional demand. In an environment where equity markets remain volatile and large-cap tech stocks show signs of weakness, these capital inflows could reverse quickly. The 13% plunge in Oracle during overnight trading, triggered by disappointing forecasts despite massive AI investments, perfectly illustrates this sector nervousness.
Bitfinex analysts identify several key variables for upcoming moves: Fed signals, bond market reactions, ETF flow persistence, and notably the behavior of the ETH/BTC ratio. This last point is particularly interesting: the steady progression of ETH/BTC, even with relatively low Ethereum network fees, suggests a gradual return of capital to the long-term Ethereum narrative. This rotation serves as a leading indicator of risk appetite within the crypto ecosystem.
The global macroeconomic backdrop remains the primary driver for risk assets like Bitcoin. The Federal Reserve confirmed this week a third consecutive rate cut while adopting a less hawkish tone than feared. This dovish stance propelled the MSCI All Country World Index to a new record and sent the dollar down to a two-month low around 98.30.
Fed funds futures now indicate a 75.6% probability that the Fed will hold rates at its January 28 meeting, up from 73.9% the day before. The market is still pricing in two cuts in 2025, even though the Fed’s official projections call for only one. This gap between market expectations and central bank guidance creates a zone of uncertainty that could generate volatility.
On the Asian equity side, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 is outperforming with a gain of approximately 1%, driven notably by SoftBank Group’s 6% surge following acquisition rumors regarding Switch Inc, a major data center player.
This AI infrastructure theme continues attracting capital, creating a positive spillover effect on cryptocurrencies positioned within this narrative. However, U.S. futures show marked caution, with Nasdaq contracts down 0.2%, reflecting sector concerns about the actual profitability of massive artificial intelligence investments.
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Charles Ledoux is a Bitcoin and blockchain technology specialist. A graduate of the Crypto Academy, he has been a Bitcoin miner for over a year. He has written numerous masterclasses to educate newcomers to the industry and has authored over 2,000 articles on cryptocurrency. Now, he aims to share his passion for crypto through his articles for InvestX.
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