XRP stands at a critical juncture, facing short-term selling pressure and historically bullish on-chain fundamentals. As it battles a major technical resistance, investors ponder: Is this a mere consolidation before a surge to new highs or the start of a severe correction towards $1.35? Deciphering technical and behavioural signals.
The current market structure of XRP shows signs of weakness in the very short term. The price is trading around $2.014, blocked beneath a bearish Order Block on the 2-hour timeframe located precisely between $2.028 and $2.058. This zone is acting as a rigid glass ceiling, where the dominance of short positions up to $2.08 is preventing any immediate breakout attempt.
If the market continues to reject this price zone, the probability of a deeper technical correction increases significantly. A failure to break through this obstacle would validate a return toward the intermediate support at $1.80. However, the real concern for bulls lies lower: a loss of this key support would open the trapdoor toward far more painful targets. Chartists are therefore watching the levels of $1.57 and $1.75, with a final downside risk to $1.35 if selling pressure intensifies.
Despite this tense short-term chart configuration, on-chain data tells a very different story, suggesting a massive redistribution phase. According to data reported by Santiment, the XRP Ledger is displaying a fascinating trend that could invalidate the bearish scenario in the medium term.
Indeed, although the number of shark and whale wallets (holding more than 100 million XRP) has dropped by over 20% over the past eight weeks, the total volume of coins held by these remaining entities continues to grow. These whales now collectively control 48 billion tokens, a level that represents a seven-year high.
This indicates extreme capital concentration: weak hands are capitulating or taking profits, while the largest market players are absorbing available liquidity, potentially anticipating a violent upward move. Moreover, recent escrow movements (400 million XRP locked at Ripple) reinforce this dynamic of circulating supply scarcity.
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Beyond whale movements, certain technical analysts are identifying precursor signals of a new major bullish leg. Analyst Javon Marks highlights the formation of a Hidden Bull Divergence on higher timeframes. This configuration, often synonymous with trend continuation after consolidation, could catalyze a recovery of more than 55%.
If this scenario materializes, XRP would not merely revisit its recent highs but could target levels well beyond $3. The theoretical technical objective of this divergence places the cursor around $3.48, potentially marking a new price discovery phase.
However, to validate this ultra-bullish thesis, the price must imperatively meet two essential conditions: maintain the vital support of $1.80 on close and successfully break the daily Order Block extending to $2.58. This pivot separates the current consolidation from a true parabolic bull run.
The XRP market is currently binary. On one side, short-term seller dominance threatens to drag the price toward a liquidation of long positions in the direction of $1.35. On the other side, the underlying strength of whales and bullish divergences suggest that the slightest break above $2.08 could trigger a violent short squeeze.
Traders will need to monitor with extreme attention the price reaction around the $1.80 zone. A bounce on this level would confirm the strength of the underlying trend, while a close below would signal a lasting change in market structure. The week ahead promises to be decisive for the future of Ripple’s token.
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Charles Ledoux is a Bitcoin and blockchain technology specialist. A graduate of the Crypto Academy, he has been a Bitcoin miner for over a year. He has written numerous masterclasses to educate newcomers to the industry and has authored over 2,000 articles on cryptocurrency. Now, he aims to share his passion for crypto through his articles for InvestX.
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