Ethereum (ETH): Will a 15% drop happen in the coming weeks?

The Ethereum Foundation Causes a Stir

The Ethereum Foundation has just withdrawn $48.9 million in ETH, reviving fears of a massive correction. And this fear is clearly showing on the chart. Indeed, a bearish order block formed on the 16H timeframe on April 22. Strong selling pressure has built up on ETH over the past week.

Nevertheless, even though selling pressure is looming, buyers are aggressively absorbing the shock for now. So, is Ether gearing up for a new rally, or will it cave under the weight of these liquidations?

Currently trading in a price range between $2,340 and $2,390, Ethereum (ETH) is facing a zone of turbulence. The Ethereum Foundation recently unstaked $48.9 million in ETH, a move that follows a previous sale of $23.8 million. This series of liquidations raises concerns about potential selling pressure on the market.

The Foundation favors over-the-counter (OTC) sales, thereby avoiding flooding public exchanges. As a result, the exchange supply ratio has plunged to 0.122, its lowest level since 2016. This bullish metric proves that demand remains robust and that buyers are massively absorbing available tokens. But is the chart just as bullish?

Can Ethereum Reignite a Rally After This Breakout?

In terms of technical analysis, Ether is truly in a tough spot. The price is currently testing its Realized Price around $2,340, a fundamental support/resistance level that corresponds to the average acquisition cost of on-chain investors. Historically, when this level is successfully broken and held, it marks the starting point of a major new bull run. However, this 16H bearish order block greatly reduces the probabilities of a rally in the coming weeks.

Momentum indicators confirm this impending bearish dynamic, with a bearish divergence on the 16H RSI. This HTF bearish divergence is expected to push ETH below its bullish trendline at $2,311 today. The next crucial support sits at $2,188. In short, if the $2,300 mark is lost, ETH could quickly drop to this support, representing a potential decline of over 5%.

Following this, ETH could seek out its daily order block around $2,000-$1,951 in the coming weeks if the $2,100 level is lost.

How Far Can the Price of Ethereum (ETH) Go?

Ethereum’s market structure remains solid for now. The absorption of selling pressure is helping to hold the $2,300 support. Nevertheless, the liquidations heatmap indicates that a drop could occur shortly, with clusters around $2,240, $2,140, and $1,988.

All these confluences (major HTF order block, RSI divergence, and liquidation zones) increase the probabilities of a medium-term decline. Furthermore, ETH has re-entered its range. Without a sustained hold or a clean breakout above $2,350, a return to $1,990 becomes the primary scenario.

The key now lies in the asset’s ability to break through its immediate resistances with significant volume. A confirmed breakout above $2,400 could trigger a domino effect, liquidating short positions and propelling the price toward new local highs. Conversely, prolonged weakness below this zone risks exhausting buyers and invalidating the bounce.

While technical indicators are flashing green and supply on exchanges is drying up, the market seems primed for an explosive move. The question is no longer whether the Foundation will sell, but whether demand will continue to swallow up this liquidity. Is Ethereum about to smash through the $2,500 mark?

Sources:

• AMBCrypto
• Coinbureau
• MMT
• Tradingview

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