After a period of consolidation, Bitcoin (BTC) appears poised to take on new challenges. Technical indicators are bullish, with seasoned investors closely monitoring crypto movements. Let's delve into the latest market dynamics and crypto market outlook together.
Fear continues to loom over the financial markets, fueled by geopolitical uncertainties and trade tensions, especially concerning US tariffs. Yet, in the midst of this storm, Bitcoin shows signs of resilience, reaching an oversold level that could herald a return to its historical highs.
Investors are anxiously watching the evolution of trade relations, particularly between the US and China, where positions seem entrenched. The bellicose statements from both sides do not portend a quick resolution.
In addition, there are macroeconomic concerns: persisting inflation, rising interest rates, and uncertainties around the monetary policies of major powers. Moreover, Donald Trump appears dissatisfied with Powell’s rate decisions.
In this context, the yield of US 10-year Treasury bonds remains a key indicator. With around $7 trillion of debt to refinance this year, the US administration must maintain attractive yields without stifling growth. Convincing institutional investors to favour Treasury bonds over assets like gold, stocks, or Bitcoin poses a significant challenge.
The term “monetary reset” is gaining popularity in financial circles. Some analysts, including influential figures like Scott Bessent, recently appointed Secretary of the Treasury, mention the need to rethink the global monetary order.
In this context, Bitcoin, with its limited supply of 21 million units and lack of centralized control, both intrigues and disturbs. Unlike fiat currencies, subject to inflation and government manipulation, Bitcoin represents a radical alternative that is challenging to integrate into traditional monetary frameworks.
Nevertheless, the US seems to have taken a lead in its approach to Bitcoin. In recent months, clearer regulatory initiatives and increasing adoption by financial institutions signal an implicit recognition of its potential. From Bitcoin spot ETFs to massive investments by hedge funds, the country demonstrates that it views the asset as a strategic tool in a changing financial world.
Jeff Park, a crypto analyst, sees tariffs as a catalyst for BTC, through the lens of the Triffin dilemma and Trump’s ambitions.
“Tariffs are a temporary tool, but Bitcoin will surge, and quickly,” he predicts. The Triffin dilemma exposes the contradictions of the dollar as a reserve currency: overvalued, it leads to a persistent trade deficit while enabling cheap borrowing.
The tariffs aim to negotiate a weaker dollar through a possible “Plaza Accord 2.0”, reducing partner countries’ dollar reserves. Additionally, Trump seeks to lower the 10-year yields, crucial for his real estate investments.
In this context, a weakened dollar and low rates will boost risk assets like Bitcoin. Trading partners, impacted by inflation and devaluation, will turn to Bitcoin, accelerating its rise. “You haven’t realized how beneficial a trade war will be for Bitcoin yet,” Park concludes.
Technically, Bitcoin is currently consolidating above a descending trendline, after forming a double bottom at $74,450. A breakout above $88,680 with volume would push Bitcoin towards $92,000 to $96,000 at least, reigniting hope in the markets.
Bitcoin’s price is currently above a downtrend line, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaking through a technical resistance. Moreover, the Stochastic RSI is approaching a bullish cross above 20, indicating potential momentum. These technical indicators suggest that an acceleration could occur quickly if the price surpasses $90,000.
After a correction of nearly three months from its all-time high at $103,000, Bitcoin is in a phase of “disbelief” among investors. Many hesitate to re-enter the market, fearing further decline.
It is in these moments that the best opportunities arise. However, Bitcoin still remains under the threat of a short-term drop as the bulls have not managed to break the $86,000 resistance.
Two support zones to watch are between $80,000 and $78,000 and between $76,000 and $77,000.
Charles Ledoux is a Bitcoin and blockchain technology specialist. A graduate of the Crypto Academy, he has been a Bitcoin miner for over a year. He has written numerous masterclasses to educate newcomers to the industry and has authored over 2,000 articles on cryptocurrency. Now, he aims to share his passion for crypto through his articles for InvestX.
DISCLAIMER
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading cryptocurrencies involves risks, and it is important not to invest more than you can afford to lose.
InvestX is not responsible for the quality of the products or services presented on this page and cannot be held liable, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused by the use of any product or service featured in this article. Investments in crypto assets are inherently risky; readers should conduct their own research before taking any action and invest only within their financial means. This article does not constitute investment advice.
Risk Warning : Trading financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk, including the possibility of losing all or part of your investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile and can be influenced by external factors such as financial, regulatory, or political events. Margin trading increases financial risks.
CFDs (Contracts for Difference) are complex instruments with a high risk of rapid capital loss due to leverage. Between 74% and 89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should assess whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Before engaging in financial or cryptocurrency trading, you must be fully informed about the associated risks and fees, carefully evaluate your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk tolerance, and seek professional advice if needed. InvestX.fr and the InvestX application may provide general market commentary, which does not constitute investment advice and should not be interpreted as such. Please consult an independent financial advisor for any investment-related questions. InvestX.fr disclaims any liability for errors, misinvestments, inaccuracies, or omissions and does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information, texts, graphics, links, or other materials provided.
Some of the partners featured on this site may not be regulated in your country. It is your responsibility to verify the compliance of these services with local regulations before using them.
