Bitcoin : a Market Between Fear and Opportunity
Fear continues to loom over the financial markets, fueled by geopolitical uncertainties and trade tensions, especially concerning US tariffs. Yet, in the midst of this storm, Bitcoin shows signs of resilience, reaching an oversold level that could herald a return to its historical highs.
Investors are anxiously watching the evolution of trade relations, particularly between the US and China, where positions seem entrenched. The bellicose statements from both sides do not portend a quick resolution.
In addition, there are macroeconomic concerns: persisting inflation, rising interest rates, and uncertainties around the monetary policies of major powers. Moreover, Donald Trump appears dissatisfied with Powell’s rate decisions.
In this context, the yield of US 10-year Treasury bonds remains a key indicator. With around $7 trillion of debt to refinance this year, the US administration must maintain attractive yields without stifling growth. Convincing institutional investors to favour Treasury bonds over assets like gold, stocks, or Bitcoin poses a significant challenge.
Towards a Global Monetary Reset ?
The term “monetary reset” is gaining popularity in financial circles. Some analysts, including influential figures like Scott Bessent, recently appointed Secretary of the Treasury, mention the need to rethink the global monetary order.
In this context, Bitcoin, with its limited supply of 21 million units and lack of centralized control, both intrigues and disturbs. Unlike fiat currencies, subject to inflation and government manipulation, Bitcoin represents a radical alternative that is challenging to integrate into traditional monetary frameworks.
Nevertheless, the US seems to have taken a lead in its approach to Bitcoin. In recent months, clearer regulatory initiatives and increasing adoption by financial institutions signal an implicit recognition of its potential. From Bitcoin spot ETFs to massive investments by hedge funds, the country demonstrates that it views the asset as a strategic tool in a changing financial world.
Tariffs and Fiat Currency : Why Bitcoin Will Soar, According to Jeff Park
Jeff Park, a crypto analyst, sees tariffs as a catalyst for BTC, through the lens of the Triffin dilemma and Trump’s ambitions.
“Tariffs are a temporary tool, but Bitcoin will surge, and quickly,” he predicts. The Triffin dilemma exposes the contradictions of the dollar as a reserve currency: overvalued, it leads to a persistent trade deficit while enabling cheap borrowing.
The tariffs aim to negotiate a weaker dollar through a possible “Plaza Accord 2.0”, reducing partner countries’ dollar reserves. Additionally, Trump seeks to lower the 10-year yields, crucial for his real estate investments.
In this context, a weakened dollar and low rates will boost risk assets like Bitcoin. Trading partners, impacted by inflation and devaluation, will turn to Bitcoin, accelerating its rise. “You haven’t realized how beneficial a trade war will be for Bitcoin yet,” Park concludes.
Encouraging Technical Outlook for Bitcoin
Technically, Bitcoin is currently consolidating above a descending trendline, after forming a double bottom at $74,450. A breakout above $88,680 with volume would push Bitcoin towards $92,000 to $96,000 at least, reigniting hope in the markets.
Bitcoin’s price is currently above a downtrend line, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaking through a technical resistance. Moreover, the Stochastic RSI is approaching a bullish cross above 20, indicating potential momentum. These technical indicators suggest that an acceleration could occur quickly if the price surpasses $90,000.
After a correction of nearly three months from its all-time high at $103,000, Bitcoin is in a phase of “disbelief” among investors. Many hesitate to re-enter the market, fearing further decline.
It is in these moments that the best opportunities arise. However, Bitcoin still remains under the threat of a short-term drop as the bulls have not managed to break the $86,000 resistance.
Two support zones to watch are between $80,000 and $78,000 and between $76,000 and $77,000.
