Bitcoin Ready to Surpass Gold ?
As Bitcoin once again crosses the symbolic $105,000 mark, its transformation as a safe-haven asset is accelerating. According to Jurrien Timmer, Global Macro Director at Fidelity, the flagship cryptocurrency is now ready to succeed gold as the reference safe-haven value.
This statement is based on a key observation: the Sharpe ratio of Bitcoin, an indicator measuring risk-adjusted returns, is gradually converging with that of gold. This statistical convergence signals that the historically high volatility of BTC is becoming more acceptable for institutional investors.
“I am fascinated to see that the asset most negatively correlated with Bitcoin remains… gold,” says Timmer. “It’s paradoxical for two instruments playing in the same team of store of value.”
While Bitcoin started the year 2025 relatively flat (+3.84%) compared to gold’s 30.33% surge, the situation has reversed since April. The clarity on trade policies and the Federal Reserve’s easing have, in fact, strengthened inflows towards Bitcoin ETFs.
According to Bitcoin Suisse’s study, this momentum could initiate an “acceleration phase” for BTC. The crypto-asset is indeed proving to be a “Swiss army knife” capable of adapting to “risk-on” (risk-taking) and “risk-off” (risk aversion) phases.
“Bitcoin acts as a Swiss army knife in the markets: it adapts as much to stock market rallies as it does to bond market downturns. Very few traditional assets can claim the same,” says Dominic Weibei, Bitcoin Suisse’s research director.
Towards Historical Highs Beyond $250,000 ?
Many analysts believe that Bitcoin could reach new historical records by the end of 2025. Among the most optimistic scenarios, a model based on the gold/Bitcoin valuation sets the target at $444,000 if BTC realigns against the total value of gold.
A more conservative yet deemed “reasonable” forecast aims for a target price of $220,000 according to analyst Apsk32. These projections are based on a favorable environment for monetary devaluation, as well as the increasing adoption of Bitcoin by institutions through ETFs.
Other on-chain indicators like the MVRV of short-term holders indicate a minimum target price of $125,000 in the coming months or weeks.
In conclusion, the year 2025 could mark a turning point for Bitcoin, which is now emerging as a credible alternative to gold in the eyes of French investors. With a comparable Sharpe ratio and performance aligned with macroeconomic trends, BTC appears legitimate for portfolio diversification.
However, the technical specifics and inherent risks of cryptocurrency must be understood. Wealth managers, private bankers, and institutional investors would benefit from reconsidering Bitcoin not as an anomaly, but as a full-fledged asset to integrate into their investment strategies.
