Oil prices surge & Bitcoin crash: Will BTC Hit $45,000?

Tokenized Oil Smashes Records on Hyperliquid

The crypto derivatives market has just experienced an unexpected seismic shift. On the decentralized platform Hyperliquid, Brent crude oil futures contracts recorded massive liquidations reaching $46.6 million in just 24 hours. This impressive volume places tokenized oil right behind the giants Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) in terms of liquidations.

The peak of this financial storm? A single oil position that was liquidated for a colossal $17.17 million. While the price of a barrel of Brent is currently trading in a volatile range between $102 and $105, this brutal retracement caught many investors betting on a continuous rally off guard.

Indeed, a major trader on the Hyperliquid DEX placed a massive $80 million bet on Bitcoin and the S&P 500, while also wagering on an oil rally.

This historic liquidation demonstrates that tokenized real world assets (RWA) are now attracting massive institutional capital. However, it also serves as a reminder that margin trading rules apply just as strictly to commodities: excessive leverage in the face of a sudden correction is unforgiving.

Currently at $106, the price of oil remains in a breakout phase and could target new highs in the coming weeks if the $95 support holds firm. But caution is warranted, as the price is facing a liquidity zone from a bearish order block at $108 and is showing a bearish divergence on the RSI. Volatility is extreme as Trump announced that the war in Iran could last another “two to three weeks”.

Can Bitcoin Fall Even Lower?

While oil takes a beating from the market, Bitcoin is trying to maintain its $65,000 support. Currently trading in a range of $66,000 to $66,800, BTC is showing signs of weakness in a tense macroeconomic environment.

According to Killa, a drop below $60,000 is only a matter of time. He analyzed every monthly candle for April since the creation of Bitcoin, and here is the result: “In 16 years, April has closed higher 10 times, or 62% of the time.” Nevertheless, in a bear market, April candles tend to close in the red. According to him, the Bitcoin bottom will not be reached until the end of the second quarter or the beginning of the third quarter of this year:

“Most of the time, during a bear market, after the April pivot, prices tend to continue their decline. I anticipate a choppy start to the second quarter, followed by a drop to new lows towards the end of the second quarter and early in the third quarter, where we should likely hit a bottom before starting a recovery.”

Looking at key short term levels, the major support is located at $64,900. As long as the price stays above this zone, the bullish scenario remains intact, with a resistance target at $71,400. If this level is breached, the next target is between $76,000 and $78,000.

On the other hand, in a bearish scenario, losing the $64,900 support could trigger a deeper correction towards $54,000, or even $40,000 if that level gives way. It will be crucial to closely monitor the S&P 500, which has initiated a strong rebound but is now sitting at a major resistance level.

The massive liquidation of tokenized oil highlights the current nervousness in the financial markets. As capital navigates between commodities and cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin could well stand out as a digital safe haven amidst the uncertainty.

Sources:

• Checkonchain
• X – KillaXBT
• Tradingview
• CoinDesk

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