Retail selling at record levels: When will Bitcoin explode?

Retail investors have sold at record levels

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading in a mid-range zone around $67,000, showing consolidation after a period of high volatility. Recent data highlights a striking divergence: retail demand (individual investors) is at an all-time low. Metrics related to memecoins, usually highly sought after for quick gains, show a complete lack of interest. This climate of extreme fear is pushing small investors to the sidelines.

In fact, retail investors sold over 300,000 BTC a few months ago, a record selling level for small holders.

However, behind the scenes, financial giants are orchestrating a massive move. BlackRock’s IBIT fund is recording staggering daily trading volumes, fluctuating between $16 billion and $18 billion. These colossal figures now rival Binance’s spot volumes and crush those of Coinbase. This dynamic confirms aggressive institutional accumulation, establishing a solid bottom and a slow, steady consolidation phase.

Is Bitcoin’s key support in danger?

From a technical analysis perspective, the $65,000 level acts as a major psychological and technical support. The fear of a deeper correction remains palpable among retail traders, who dread a breakdown below this floor. If this support were to give way, BTC could drop toward the lower liquidity zone located between $63,300 and $64,000.

For now, Bitcoin is still below its POC at $68,500 and notably displays two bearish order blocks on the 12H chart. This is a bearish signal that could very well push Bitcoin down to $65,000 or below in the coming days. We will then need to observe Bitcoin’s reaction between $63,000 and $65,000. Only reclaiming $69,000 could confirm a short-term bullish move toward $72,000.

A breakout above this resistance would invalidate the bearish scenario and confirm the return of buyer strength in the short term. Whales have clearly understood this: they have accumulated over 10,000 BTC over the past 72 hours, reinforcing the idea that the current bottom is solidly defended by smart money amidst macroeconomic uncertainties.

Is now the right time to buy Bitcoin?

The contrast between retail investor panic and the voracious appetite of institutions is the classic breeding ground for major market reversals. If the $65,000 support holds strong, this silent accumulation phase could be the catalyst for a spectacular rally. The market seems ripe for a supply shock, driven by the constant and massive inflows from spot ETFs.

Moreover, Bitcoin’s trend is currently following an identical pattern to the previous cycle. If this correlation continues, Bitcoin could target $160,000 by 2029.

On the other hand, as MichaelXBT points out, Bitcoin is testing the support of a 10-year-old triangle for the fifth time. A fifth retest is never a good sign from a momentum perspective.

In short, the bottom could be closer than ever in terms of price. However, a quick bounce seems compromised given the selling pressure of recent months. Therefore, we must remain patient. According to KillaXBT, the bottom will occur between August and September. A few more months of observation are needed before buying BTC with greater peace of mind.

While fear paralyzes the majority, on-chain signals have never been clearer. Bitcoin is at a crossroads, and the next impulse could redefine crypto market standards. A breakout above $78,000 would signal the return of the bull run. Bitcoin’s 111D-SMA sits at $77,000. Historically, when the price crosses back above this resistance, the bullish trend resumes. Until then, caution is advised. 

Sources:

• Checkonchain
• Tradingview
• AMBCrypto

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