Bitcoin: Why top traders are hesitant to buy the dip

Why Do Whales Remain Unmoved by the $72,000 Level?

The crypto market is experiencing a phase of high volatility. After hitting a local low around $60,000, Bitcoin attempted a bullish breakout above $72,000. However, sentiment among professionals remains ice-cold. The Long-to-Short indicator for top traders on Binance has dropped to its lowest level in 30 days. In simple terms: while price was rising, the “smart money” was reducing their exposure or betting on a decline.

This divergence between price (going up) and professional positioning (selling or hedging) is often a warning signal. Furthermore, as Killa indicates, the number of longs exceeds shorts by 3X. Top traders may therefore be derisking while the imbalance lies to the downside.

Moreover, macroeconomic factors weigh heavily. The sharp drop in silver and the rise in gold suggest forced liquidations in other markets, prompting fund managers to exercise caution on risk assets like cryptocurrencies. The options market confirms this trend with an increase in neutral to bearish strategies.

Is the $60,000 Support Really Solid?

Technically, the $60,000 zone has acted as a major psychological and technical support. The rapid bounce from this level has validated, for now, buyer interest at this price. However, the violent rejection once $72,000 was reached shows that bears are aggressively defending upper resistances. Bitcoin is currently trading around $66,900 and has just broken its range on the LTF.

Additionally, a bearish order block appeared at $71,000 on the 3-hour chart. This break of the $67k support and smart money selling could push BTC price toward $64,000 during the day.

However, it’s not all doom and gloom. Renowned technical analyst Ali Martinez has identified a potential bullish reversal signal. According to his recent analysis, the TD Sequential indicator presents a buy signal on the 3-day chart, suggesting a possible bounce within the next 3 to 9 days.

Can Bitcoin Defy Bearish Predictions?

The current scenario places traders in a delicate situation. On one hand, on-chain data and derivatives positioning indicate that large wallets expect more downside or prolonged sideways action. On the other hand, the technical bounce signal identified by some chartists could surprise short sellers and trigger a Short Squeeze if price manages to break free of $70,000 with volume.

A loss of $66,000 would open the path to a quick revisit of $60,000, or even lower toward $52,000 (a key MVRV level).

In this context of uncertainty where signals are contradictory, patience is often the best strategy. Investors will closely monitor the weekly close to confirm whether the 14% bounce was a trap or the beginning of a sustainable recovery.

The crypto market has accustomed us to spectacular reversals when sentiment is at its lowest. While the majority of pros are betting on decline, is Bitcoin preparing a bullish surprise to liquidate late short positions?

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