Cardano Whales Capitulate: 114.66 Million ADA Moved
On-chain data doesn’t lie and confirms what many feared. Indeed, long-term investors are abandoning the Cardano ship. The Coin Age Band Spent metric reveals a brutal 23% increase in aged coins moved, reaching 114.66 million ADA over the past week. This type of movement typically signals a loss of confidence among the network’s most experienced players.
This silent capitulation by whales contrasts sharply with the rebound attempts observed at the start of the week. Despite a slight uptick, ADA never managed to build sufficient momentum to reverse the dominant trend. Large holders appear to be anticipating new lows and prefer to lock in their current losses rather than risk further depreciation.
Some analysts like Ali Martinez nevertheless identify a potential buy signal via the TD Sequential indicator, suggesting that the bearish trend could be losing momentum. However, this technical signal remains fragile in the face of the magnitude of capital outflows observed.
Technical Analysis: A Channel Break That Spooks Markets
The daily ADA/USD chart tells a worrying story for bulls. The price has been moving within a descending channel for over a year and now threatens to break through this last psychological barrier to the downside. Momentum indicators confirm the dominance of sellers in the market.
The MACD displays a fragile golden cross, already shifting toward a death cross below the signal line. The RSI has crossed the oversold threshold at 30, a level that historically marked local bottoms for ADA. But this time, the expected bounce isn’t materializing, indicating that buyers remain noticeably absent.
A confirmed break of the descending channel would open the door to a 35% drop toward $0.24, a major support level that held firm throughout this market cycle. This level represents the last bastion before a deeper collapse that could call into question the medium-term viability of the altcoin.
Do Bullish Scenarios Still Exist for ADA?
Despite this bleak technical picture, certain catalysts could reverse the dynamics. Approval of a spot Cardano ETF remains a possibility on the table, even if it seems distant in the current regulatory context. More realistically, an interest rate cut by the Fed in December could reignite risk appetite across the entire crypto market.
In a bear trap scenario, where the price would rebound quickly after testing support levels, a bullish reversal could offer 380% upside potential toward $1.80. Intermediate levels to watch are $0.50 and $1.34, which would serve as progressive targets for bulls.
This optimistic scenario requires, however, a radical shift in market sentiment and especially a return of large investors who are currently deserting the project. Without substantial buying volume, Cardano price predictions remain negatively oriented for the coming weeks.
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