Mixed Signals Between Long-Term and Short-Term Holders
Bitcoin “Liveliness,” a key indicator for tracking the activity of long-term holders (LTHs), has recently reached its highest level in nearly 4 years. This increase indicates that these long-standing investors are beginning to realize their profits, a behavior that raises questions about the sustainability of the recent bullish rally.
LTHs are generally considered the pillar of Bitcoin price stability. Their selling activity often suggests a shift in investor sentiment toward greater skepticism. When these “whales” decide to divest their holdings, it can lead to increased market volatility and a potential price correction.
On the other hand, short-term holders are not yet in their selling zone, as analyst Axel points out. Indeed, while whales are positioning themselves on promising altcoins, Axel Adler Jr. highlights that when the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator for 1-3 month holders exceeds 40%, selling pressure intensifies, influencing price dynamics.
In his analysis, he projects that with a current NUPL of 27% and a growth rate of 0.818 percentage points per day, this threshold could be reached by June 11, 2025, potentially propelling Bitcoin’s price to approximately $162,000. However, Adler cautions against unforeseen events, such as sudden declarations by influential political figures, which could disrupt this bullish trajectory.
A $114,000 Selling Wall to Overcome
The creation of new Bitcoin addresses has experienced significant volatility in recent weeks. After reaching new highs at the beginning of the month, we’re now observing a decline.
This slowdown in address growth indicates that fewer new investors are entering the market, while some existing holders are choosing to withdraw. This “purge” movement of wallets is typically observed during periods of growing skepticism.
Bitcoin’s current price, around $109,700, is less than 3% from its all-time high of $111,980 reached last week. However, BTC’s ability to break through this level heavily depends on investor reaction.
If skepticism and selling continue, Bitcoin might struggle to regain its bullish momentum. A downward break of the $106,265 support would pave the way for further declines, potentially to $105,000 or $102,734 in the short term.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin seems intent on liquidating shorts, as more than $500 million in short positions have been placed at the $110,000 level in recent days.
As Killa indicates, a major selling wall has been placed between $112k and $114k, which could slow its rise if it reaches these levels.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s rally is currently under pressure as long-term holders sell and new wallet growth slows. The price must accelerate, as time is working against it. Nevertheless, STH (Short-Term Holder) data indicates that the rally could still continue for several days or weeks.
Indeed, the STH MVRV Bollinger Band has not yet entered the red overheating zone, with a target at $113,499. This zone will be critical and could serve as a bearish turning point for the price, as many investors take profits.
