Is Solana’s Key Support at Risk?
The crypto market is holding its breath following a massive whale outflow. Currently trading in a price zone between $81 and $84, the Solana token is showing clear signs of exhaustion. According to on-chain data, whale participation has dropped dramatically, with an almost total absence of large buy or sell orders over the past week. This $17.6 million capitulation highlights the nervousness of institutional investors amid uncertain price action.
From a technical standpoint, SOL is in a full consolidation phase. The price is currently compressed below the mid-range at $83, oscillating between a solid support around $81.3 and an immediate resistance near $87. Momentum indicators, such as the RSI and the MACD, are showing neutrality, reflecting market indecision. Volatility is contracting, which typically precedes an explosive move.
If bearish pressure intensifies and the $81.3 support breaks, the cryptocurrency could suffer a drop toward the bottom of its range around $75. In this pessimistic scenario, a plunge toward the $50 zone is entirely plausible, pushing the token even further away from its previous ATH.
How Far Can the Price of Solana (SOL) Go?
Despite this gloomy climate and the flight of some large capital, a bounce is not out of the question. If buyers regain control and manage to break the $87 resistance, a short-term bull run could propel SOL toward new local highs. The technical target would then sit around $90 to $93, confirming a resumption of the bullish trend.
As noted by renowned crypto analyst Ali Martinez, the current volatility contraction signals an imminent move of around 10%. The question remains in which direction the market will break out once it leaves this compression zone. Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming key levels to position themselves.
He later specified that he anticipates an imminent return for SOL toward $77, which confirms the current trend and our analysis. Indeed, SOL has broken its trendline and is now sitting on its last major liquidity support. Below this price, capitulation could accelerate.
On the liquidation side, the northern clusters are mostly located above $87. Given the difficulty SOL has faced at this level in recent days, this remains unlikely unless BTC reclaims $78,000.
Conversely, a major cluster is located around $80.4. This level could be tapped in the coming days. And a return to this level could definitively seal its drop back to $75.
What Should You Do?
The bearish trend could last a very long time for SOL. Indeed, the 2-week order blocks indicate a massive capital outflow. Could SOL return to $17 in the coming years?
Some analysts believe that the transition of Bitcoin from OGs to institutions could take several years, characterized by slow and steady accumulation. Altcoins could bear the full brunt of this apathy from the king of cryptos.
For now, no capitulation is prompting smart money to buy. We will need to closely monitor a 1-week bullish divergence on the CVD, a signal that preceded the 2022 bottom. The same goes for the RSI, a 1-week bullish divergence or a 2-week oversold zone could be a strong signal of an imminent reversal.
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