A Strong Weekly Close Above $105,000 for Bitcoin
Bitcoin is back on the rise, surpassing $107,000 early in the week, recovering from losses related to Israel-Iran tensions. The positive weekly close and a move above $107,000 put BTC/USD in a strong position as Wall Street regains momentum.
A decision on the Fed’s interest rates is expected, with concerns about rising oil prices potentially fueling inflation.
Perpetual markets show a discount relative to the spot price, raising expectations for a short squeeze. Price targets for BTC remain significantly positive, with $200,000 or more still possible without technical signs of a long-term peak.
Focused on Liquidity
After a relatively stable weekly close, Bitcoin gains ground by surpassing $107,000 early in the week. Most of the losses from Israel-Iran tensions have been reversed.
A crucial support has held around $104,500, a good sign for the market.
Coinglass indicates strong liquidity to the downside for BTC as traders are long on BTC and have placed their stop loss up to $104,000. This level will need to be monitored in case of a retracement.
Special attention is paid to order book liquidity, especially around $108,000 and above. Over 600 BTC have been placed in spot sell orders between $108,000 and $111,000.
Week Highlight : FOMC Decision and the Oil Crisis
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision is the standout macroeconomic point of the week, while geopolitical events increase pressure on combating inflation.
An increase in oil and commodity prices threatens US inflation expectations.
Markets have already ruled out a rate cut under pressure from US President Donald Trump. According to Polymarket votes, there is a 97.5% chance the Fed will not change rates this Wednesday.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the FOMC press conference will be closely watched for any monetary policy shifts.
Rare Convergence between Whales and Institutional Bitcoin Investors
Unlike usual divergences, Bitcoin whales and institutional investors seem aligned on a “HODL” strategy around $106,000. There is a strong consensus to hold the position at this level, indicating a constructive market sentiment.
Incoming BTC flows to Binance are at their lowest, indicating a strong preference for holding rather than selling. This convergence between whales and retail investors is rare and could signal a period of stability or high confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term trend.
Bitcoin ETFs also had a positive week with over $1 billion in inflows despite conflicts.
Binance Analysis Points to a Potential Short Squeeze
Some experts anticipate a “short squeeze” on BTC, with Binance analysis suggesting a favorable trend reversal for bulls once the perpetual BTC price on Binance starts to rise compared to spot markets.
A persistent gap between derivatives and spot markets could signal an imminent uptrend. Ambitious price targets for BTC are envisioned, with some forecasting levels close to $270,000 by October.
In conclusion, Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory despite economic and geopolitical challenges, with widespread optimism for a continuation of the bullish trend. Technical signals and capital flow analysis suggest that the peak of the bull market has not yet been reached, offering interesting opportunities for savvy investors.
