Could the king of cryptos disappoint bullish hopes? Despite Bitcoin appearing firmly above $100,000, several technical indicators are pointing towards an imminent drop. With a high NVT ratio and pressure on the support, warning signals are multiplying. Should we brace for a sharp correction?
Bitcoin is currently going through a critical phase, with increasingly bearish technical and on-chain signals. Its key support at $101,000 is under threat, and a breach could lead to a drop towards the average MVRV at $82,570.
Investors need to closely monitor the upcoming developments. The next move will determine if Bitcoin stabilizes or faces a stronger correction in the coming days. Bitcoin’s Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio has surged by 83.82%, reaching 56.81. This rapid increase suggests that BTC’s market capitalization is growing faster than its transaction volume. This could potentially be a sign of overvaluation.
Historically, similar NVT peaks have coincided with local market tops or short-term corrections. Although the price remains above $104,000, on-chain activity is struggling to keep up with the rise. This suggests a weakening of fundamental support.
The stock-to-flow ratio has dropped by 12.5%, falling to 795.16 K. This decrease challenges Bitcoin’s long-standing scarcity narrative. The narrative has often supported long-term bullish valuations. A declining stock-to-flow indicates that the perceived scarcity of BTC may no longer be sufficient to sustain high prices. Without new inflows or catalysts related to supply shocks, Bitcoin could struggle to maintain its current levels, with demand weakening and the scarcity narrative losing weight.
Short positions liquidations have reached $5.9 million, primarily on Bybit and Binance, indicating a wave of forced exits. Meanwhile, long positions are gradually building up, totaling $1.18 million.
This pattern reveals a divided market, with short sellers under pressure while dip buyers enter early. However, these premature long positions entries could reverse if the price fails to recover higher support zones.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin remains above an upward trend line and the Fibonacci level at 0.786, around $101,437. These two levels act as a crucial confluent support.
However, the Stochastic RSI indicator is weakening, entering oversold territory. While these levels typically suggest a near bounce, sellers still control the short-term momentum. If buyers fail to regain control and push prices higher, Bitcoin could collapse towards deeper retracement levels, like $84,000 or $76,000. The next sessions will be crucial, with $101,000 as the bulls’ last line of defense.
A successful defense could trigger a rebound, while a failure to hold it could push prices down to the MVRV average at $82,570. With the NVT rising and the stock-to-flow weakening, the next move will determine if BTC stabilizes or faces a stronger correction in the coming days. If you are considering investing in BTC now, you can do so on one of the top exchanges of the moment: Bitget.
Passionate about the crypto world, he explores the blockchain ecosystem to extract the most essential insights. With his expertise in SEO and web writing, he transforms news and technical analysis into clear, engaging, and impactful content. His goal? To help investors better understand the opportunities and challenges of the crypto market.
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