The Bitcoin market holds its breath ahead of Trump's 100-day speech. A positive stance from the US president could propel BTC to new highs, but the risk of a more protectionist tone looms large.
For several days, Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading in a technical consolidation zone between $91,700 and $95,850. Data from analytics platforms like TradingView and Cointelegraph Markets Pro show a price compression, forming higher lows under a solid resistance at $96,000.
This price structure reflects a market hesitating as it approaches a potentially pivotal political event: Trump’s speech marking his 100 days in the White House. Since his comeback, the former president has shown a generally positive attitude towards crypto-assets, sparking speculation about a pro-Bitcoin policy to come. Institutional and retail investors are thus wondering: on the 29th of April, will Trump explicitly address the topic of cryptocurrencies?
The decentralized betting platform Polymarket assigns a scenario mentioning “Bitcoin” or “crypto” a probability of 24%. Over a million dollars have already been wagered on this event, underscoring the strategic importance of this speech for the market.
Favorable statements, especially regarding a potential federal strategic reserve in Bitcoin, could ignite an uptrend towards $100,000. Conversely, a focus on protectionist policies, like tariff hardening, could temper investors’ appetite.
Furthermore, the significant decrease in BTC reserves on centralized exchange platforms amplifies price sensitivity to demand. According to CryptoQuant data, over 50,500 BTC (approximately $4.7 billion) have left exchanges since April 22nd. This scarcity of available supply could favour a rapid price surge upon a positive announcement.
According to analyst AlphaBTC, BTC is “continuing to compress” below $96,000, with several unsuccessful attempts to break this resistance. “The more attempts to breach $95,000, the higher the likelihood of a breakthrough,” he emphasizes.
The main identified resistance levels are now at $95,000, $99,500 (local high point), and the major psychological threshold of $100,000. These areas will be closely monitored by professional traders, especially those in derivative markets.
If Trump’s speech favours cryptocurrencies, a new bullish momentum could propel Bitcoin towards $100,000, even $115,000 according to AlphaBTC‘s estimates. In the longer term, Peter Chung (Presto) even anticipates a potential of $210,000 by 2025.
However, macroeconomic and geopolitical factors remain decisive in the short term. A protectionist approach from Trump could therefore temper BTC gains immediately. Investors will need to remain vigilant and adopt a prudent strategy facing this crucial political deadline.
Gaston has been a writer for over 7 years and a passionate cryptocurrency enthusiast since 2020. He loves exploring the crypto ecosystem and is now dedicated to sharing his insights and discoveries through InvestX.
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