Arthur Hayes bets on HYPE: Bitcoin stalled by AI and Iran conflict

An Explosive Macroeconomic Cocktail: Are We Heading for a Massive Crash?

In his latest essay published this month, Arthur Hayes paints a particularly worrying picture for risk assets in the short term. The Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom confirmed that his fund made almost no trades in the first quarter of 2026. This voluntary paralysis is driven by global uncertainty that is pushing institutional investors to anticipate a severe correction in the financial markets.

According to the expert, two major catalysts are threatening the global economy. On one hand, the massive adoption of artificial intelligence agents risks destroying the Western job market, triggering a deflationary financial collapse. He believes the rise of AI agents (or “claws”) will ruin the jobs of knowledge workers in Western economies, particularly in the United States.

Consequently, this could lead to a wave of layoffs, an explosion in consumer credit defaults, and ultimately, a bank solvency crisis. Reminding us that consumption accounts for roughly 70% of the US GDP, Hayes foresees a scenario comparable to the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, but this time triggered by automation.

On the other hand, he points to the escalating tensions in the Middle East, notably the conflict involving Iran and the United States, which poses a massive risk to the global energy supply via the Strait of Hormuz.

Faced with this anxiety inducing climate, Hayes prefers to stay on the sidelines and avoid any unexpected retracement. The market severely lacks a clear direction, and retail traders attempting to navigate this volatility risk getting trapped. However, this “dead zone” actually hides strategic accumulation opportunities for the coming months.

But Hayes insists on a crucial point: for Bitcoin, it is not the price of money (interest rates) that matters, but the quantity of money created. In an environment where central banks could simultaneously raise rates to combat energy inflation and print money to fund defense and commodity stockpiles, fixed supply assets like Bitcoin and gold should mechanically benefit from this monetary expansion.

Hayes Current Strategy and Bitcoin Outlook

So despite this prevailing pessimism, Arthur Hayes remains convinced that fixed supply assets will come out on top. While traditional stocks could collapse under the weight of rising rates, Bitcoin (BTC) and physical gold are positioning themselves as the ultimate shields. History shows that governments always end up printing money to finance war efforts, a dynamic that historically fuels a massive rally for safe haven assets.

For now, Hayes remains highly cautious. He is only adding gold and HYPE to his portfolio, awaiting the launch of HIP-4 which could steal market share from prediction platforms like Polymarket.

Regarding Bitcoin, Hayes is waiting for a clear signal from the Fed before significantly increasing his exposure. He hopes the asset will hold the 60,000 mark in the event of a widespread crash in traditional markets.

The essay quickly sparked reactions within the crypto community. Many see it as a lucid analysis that highlights the real structural risks: technological deflation on one side, and a geopolitical and monetary shock on the other. Others mainly take away a simple message: sometimes, the best decision is to do nothing and let time do the work.

How High Can the Price of Hyperliquid (HYPE) Go During the Next Surge?

The real surprise in Arthur Hayes analysis lies in his only altcoin play of the quarter. While his fund has shied away from the majority of cryptocurrencies, he has quietly increased his long position on Hyperliquid (HYPE). He even changed his X profile picture to a Hypurr NFT.

Indeed, Hayes anticipates that the upcoming updates to the Hyperliquid protocol will allow it to capture massive market share, particularly in the highly lucrative prediction market sector against giants like Polymarket. With a price currently hovering around $44, the HYPE token enjoys its own momentum, decoupled from the macroeconomic turbulence hitting the rest of the industry.

As whales quietly accumulate this mysterious token, the question arises for retail investors. Should you follow in Arthur Hayes footsteps and bet on the solid fundamentals of Hyperliquid before the market wakes up? How high can the price of HYPE and Bitcoin truly explode if central banks turn the money printers back on this year?

As mentioned in our latest analysis, HYPE still has room to grow up to $47 to $50 before finally facing its real test and profit taking that could slow its momentum in the short term. As a reminder, Arthur Hayes predicted HYPE at $150 in August 2026 a few months ago. Although HYPE is clearly one of the most attractive and top performing altcoins at the start of this year, a 200% surge in a few months would be almost a miracle in this context.

Sources:

• Arthur Hayes Substack
• Arthur Hayes

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