Why Bitcoin’s $100,000 Threshold Matters More Than Ever

Technical Analysis and MVRV Price Bands

Bitcoin is currently going through a “cooling-off” phase without entering a correction phase. Long-term accumulation by holders and inflows from ETFs give buyers hope of a potential recovery soon. However, the $102,500 support level remains crucial in determining the market’s future direction.

Technical analysis of Bitcoin and MVRV Price Bands has highlighted the significance of the $102,500 support level. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has dropped to $104,000 twice before bouncing back to $105,000 at the time of writing, confirming short-term volatility.

Bitcoin has just broken out of a 30-minute compression triangle, which could push its price to $106,600 within the day, according to the MRC.

Despite current geopolitical tensions, the strong inflow of funds into ETFs has provided some hope to buyers anticipating Bitcoin’s resurgence. In the event of a rally, the MVRV Pricing Band indicates a peak between $147 and $165,000, the market’s “overheating” zone.

Bitcoin Macro Sentiment Index

In his weekly report Adler Insights, crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr mentioned the Bitcoin Macro Heat Index. This indicator, also known as the Heat Phase Index, combines four key signals to understand market “heat.” A maximum score of 0.45 was reached on May 22 when Bitcoin hit its peak at $111,000. Currently, a value of 0.41 indicates a recovery in demand and normal market activity levels.

If the Macro Heat Index drops below the 0.39 threshold in the coming days, it would signal an extended market cool-down. A decline in Bitcoin below $100,000 combined with an index below 0.39 would shift current bullish expectations and indicate the market entering a correction phase.

Cumulative Bitcoin CVD Taker Volume and Critical 50MA

Despite the market cooling and slowing momentum, long-term holders continue to accumulate. The wind pressure was much less than in November-December 2024, with holders preferring to retain their assets. The 90-day cumulative taker CVD volume has shown that taker purchases have been dominant, suggesting that buyers are hopeful of a recovery.

While current geopolitical tensions may delay a sustained bullish trend, holding the price above the support of $100,000 gives buyers some control. Investors should stay alert to market developments to seize potential investment opportunities.

Furthermore, trader DrProfit highlights a key element in buyers’ hopeful resurgence. Since 2023, Bitcoin has consistently rebounded off its 50-day moving average (50MA), indicating a potential bullish recovery is imminent.

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