Bitcoin undervalued? Ethereum targets Q2 breakout

Institutions view Bitcoin as undervalued, while Ethereum shows strong breakout potential. Will the crypto market surge in Q2? Get the analysis!

Written by Simon Dumoulin

Adapted by April 30, 2026 at 10:29 by Simon Dumoulin

Illustration photoréaliste d'un Bitcoin et d'un Ethereum lumineux flottant au-dessus d'un terminal de trading épuré avec des courbes haussières, lumière bleue et blanche, silhouettes d'investisseurs institutionnels en arrière-plan, esthétique fintech minimaliste et lumineuse, résolution

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Bitcoin and Ethereum: Institutions Are Silently Accumulating

The first quarter of 2026 was brutal. The total capitalization of the crypto market dropped by 18%, wiping out a portion of the speculative positions opened during the late 2025 rally. Yet beneath the surface, an opposite trend is taking shape. On-chain data and institutional surveys paint a very different picture from the prevailing pessimism.

For investors who track cryptocurrency fundamentals, this type of divergence between market sentiment and the actual behavior of large wallets is rarely insignificant.

One figure stands out in the “Charting Crypto Q2 2026” report published by Coinbase Institutional: 75% of surveyed institutional investors believe that Bitcoin is currently undervalued. This is not an isolated opinion; it is a consensus directly reflected in the flows.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $2.13 billion in net inflows in April 2026, according to data from SoSoValue. With the price hovering around $77,000, strong hands are not waiting for an additional signal to accumulate. They are doing so methodically and under the radar.

The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) indicator has exited the fear zone to cross back into optimistic territory, which historically aligns with accumulation phases preceding prolonged bullish movements. While not a guarantee, it provides a favorable backdrop that experienced traders cannot ignore.

Horizontal bar chart comparing Bitcoin valuation perception between institutional and non-institutional investors in March 2026 and December 2025, source Coinbase Charting Crypto Report.

Ethereum Regains Momentum

While Bitcoin consolidates, Ethereum is displaying its own momentum. The asset is trading above $2,300, posting a 12% gain over the last month. Even more interestingly, the short-term supply plummeted by 38% in the first quarter of 2026, highlighting a strong holding behavior among current owners.

When tokens leave exchanges for cold wallets, it is rarely a sign that holders are preparing to sell. This movement mechanically reduces the available selling pressure on the spot market, which combined with stable or growing demand creates the perfect conditions for a breakout.

The stablecoin market has now reached a total capitalization of $318 billion. This sidelined liquidity represents massive potential fuel for the next bullish phase. Understanding how to invest in cryptocurrencies in this environment involves tracking these stablecoin flows as a leading indicator of demand.

Daily ETH/USDT chart on TradingView with RSI strategy (14, 30, 70) from December 2025 to May 2026, showing RSI at 48.04, RSI moving average at 54.65, and current price at $2,245.23.

What the On-Chain Data Reveals

Beyond price action, on-chain metrics tell a consistent story. The number of active Bitcoin addresses remains high. Net outflows from exchanges have continued for several weeks. Meanwhile, miners have slowed down their selling despite margin pressure, suggesting they anticipate an upcoming price surge.

On Ethereum, the leverage ratio in the futures markets remains moderate, limiting the risk of cascading liquidations in the event of a rapid price swing. This represents a much healthier market structure than in November 2024, when excessive leverage amplified the correction.

For those who follow crypto price analysis, these combined signals are rarely a coincidence.

Has the Market Truly Flushed Out Its Excesses?

The real question is not whether Bitcoin will go up, but whether the Q1 2026 correction has sufficiently cleared out speculative positions to allow for a sustainable rally. The data suggests that for the most part, it has.

Open interest has dropped significantly since January. The funding rate has returned to neutral levels. Options markets are showing a growing premium on Q3 2026 calls, reflecting rising bullish expectations among professional traders.

This does not mean an immediate return to all-time highs is guaranteed. Macroeconomic factors, particularly the Fed’s monetary policy and ongoing trade tensions, continue to weigh on overall risk appetite. However, the risk/reward ratio over a multi-month horizon looks favorable, provided you properly manage your exposure through reliable crypto exchanges.

What is the Trajectory for BTC and ETH by Late 2026?

Analysts from Glassnode and Coinbase Institutional agree on a similar scenario: a gradual recovery driven by institutional flows, with a potential test of Bitcoin’s historical ATH by the end of the second quarter if macroeconomic conditions remain stable.

For Ethereum, the market structure is even more compelling to watch. A reduction in available supply combined with growing demand for DeFi products and Spot ETH ETFs could trigger a disproportionate upward move compared to Bitcoin, a phenomenon analysts refer to as an “ETH outperformance cycle.” Those looking to buy cryptocurrencies during this phase are closely monitoring exactly this type of setup.

The market does not forgive emotional decisions in either direction, whether it is panic selling at the bottom or euphoric buying at the top. Current data points to an accumulation window, rather than a full confirmation of a total recovery just yet.

$ETH keeps getting hammered on the chart against $BTC!

It looked promising last week, but again got harshly rejected on that diagonal trend line.

Not much to do; $ETH will remain weak as long as this resistance is not broken! pic.twitter.com/up3hyaajEA
— Sjuul | AltCryptoGems (@AltCryptoGems) April 29, 2026

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Simon Dumoulin

Crypto analyst with over 7 years of trading experience and a strong background in the iGaming and cryptocurrency industries, I cover crypto news with a rigorous yet accessible approach. Passionate about blockchain since 2019, I have published more than 1,200 articles and guides on cryptocurrencies, DeFi, and blockchain, recognized for their reliability and clarity.

Specializing in on-chain trading and whale activity analysis, I decode blockchain flows to anticipate market trends before they become obvious.

One of my articles was cited by Éric Larchevêque, co-founder of Ledger, highlighting the quality and credibility of my analysis.

My goal remains unchanged: to make crypto accessible and understandable for everyone, from beginners to experienced investors.

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