Can Bitcoin reach $90,000? Why June could be a pivotal month

Crypto whales trigger a massive rally

The crypto market is holding its breath. Currently trading around $74,966 (up slightly by 0.27% over 24 hours), Bitcoin is showing clear signs of strength. According to the latest on-chain data, large wallets have accumulated nearly 270,000 BTC over the past 30 days, marking their biggest buying frenzy since 2013.

This colossal buying pressure represents roughly 20 times the daily newly issued supply. This dynamic drastically reduces the available liquidity on exchanges, creating a supply shock conducive to a bull run. Institutional investors, through spot ETFs, are also participating in this momentum, albeit more cautiously.

This massive bullish movement coincides with the fact that LTHs (Long Term Holders) sold the majority of their holdings last January, as shown by the LTH distribution chart. Indeed, the chart indicates that the bulk of the selling is already behind us. In other words, Bitcoin is now in an accumulation phase for large holders.

Possible scenarios for the coming months 

The current dynamic rests on a fragile balance between institutional accumulation and key technical levels. With whales buying aggressively on the spot market, the probabilities of a bullish breakout are increasing by the day.

The volume and interest in Bitcoin ETFs are therefore crucial during this tense period for Bitcoin. Besides the need to see a positive Coinbase premium, ETF inflows will have to be consistent and sufficient to break through the $80,000 – $84,000 mark, the price level that would reignite the bull run. Indeed, Bitcoin sustaining above $80,000 will be a clear signal that the bull run is finally back on track.

When studying the ETF market, there are several key elements to consider:

Bitcoin is currently hovering around $74,000 – $75,000 and is positioned right in the heart of a zone well known to options traders: the gamma wall. According to the IBIT open interest analysis, it is precisely at this level that gamma peaks, forcing market makers to continuously adjust their hedges. This is why we are seeing compressed volatility, with a market under tension and an imminent decision.

On the options side, the IBIT OI (Open Interest) profile reveals a two step structure. On the downside, $70K represents the crucial support: below this, the market flips into negative gamma, and market makers stop dampening movements and instead amplify them. This would trigger a rapid crash down to $65,000 or $60,000, where OTM puts are concentrated.

Meanwhile, in a bullish scenario, the price will move into a low option density zone between $85K and $110K, known as an “air pocket” where BTC can advance rapidly if selling pressure fades. 

In other words, Bitcoin is currently in a zone of resistance and indecision between $70,000 and $85,000. However, a break below $70K or above $85K will be explosive.

May and June under bearish pressure?

Finally, the options market reveals crucial dates with massive expirations of nearly $3 billion in calls on IBIT ETFs. Indeed, two dates stand out in the IBIT options calendar as major liquidity events: May 15 and June 18, 2026. Together, they concentrate nearly $6 billion in calls, a mass large enough to mechanically influence the price of Bitcoin in the coming weeks.

If BTC remains below $80K by May 15, these calls will expire worthless. Buyers will therefore lose their premium, and market makers will cash in.

However, June 18 is the date that dominates the entire IBIT open interest board with over $3.5 billion in calls. The put/call ratio there is particularly low, reflecting a massively bullish positioning from institutional players.

A BTC price between $70K and $80K on June 18 would be a massive value destruction event for calls, but not necessarily a disaster for the price itself. Everything depends on what happens in the following 72 hours. 

If the calls expire OTM (out of the money), the positions are not mechanically rolled over, which could lead to a potential void in bullish support in July. If they exit their positions, $60K then becomes the next destination. 

Conversely, a price above $80,000 on June 18 could trigger a rapid rally toward $90,000 – $110,000.

This is why the week of June 18 to 25 will likely be one of the most important of the year for Bitcoin. Not necessarily on D-Day itself, but the days that follow will tell us a lot about Bitcoin’s next destination.

Sources:

• Cointelegraph
• Cryptoquant
• Checkonchain

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