Bitcoin ETF Flows: The Decisive Arbiter of the Cycle
The 2024 halving, which occurred on April 20, appears to have already marked the peak of the cycle. Historically, Bitcoin peaks arrive between 526 and 546 days after the halving. The October 6 peak at $126,200 fits perfectly within this historical window, especially as Bitcoin now fluctuates between $105,000 and $114,000, with a key support at $108,000 being regularly tested.
The macroeconomic context reinforces this hypothesis. The announcement of new American tariffs on Chinese imports triggered a liquidation of $19 billion in futures contracts, pushing institutional traders to seek downside protection. This movement is accompanied by persistent weakness in Bitcoin ETF flows, which are now stagnant or negative, proving a slowdown in demand.
According to CoinShares data, the continuation of net outflows would confirm that October 6 truly represents the cycle peak. Conversely, only a massive return of institutional inflows could trigger a final push toward $135,000 to $155,000 before the distribution phase begins.
Diminishing Returns: Is Bitcoin Maturing?
Each Bitcoin cycle displays diminishing returns. Between the 2017 peak at $19,783 and the 2021 peak at $69,000, the gain reached 248.6%. If $126,000 truly represents the new summit, the increase since 2021 would only be 82.6%, consistent with historical exponential decay. This evolution reflects market maturation, supported by ETFs and institutional capital.
Past cycles show a constant decrease in gains: +3,696% between 2011 and 2013, then +1,580% between 2013 and 2017. The average decay rate, between 70% and 84%, maintains at approximately 67% in the current cycle. Regarding corrections, previous bear markets lasted 12 to 18 months, with declines of 57% to 76%. A correction of 35% to 55% therefore seems realistic, targeting bottom zones between $57,000 and $82,000, possibly late 2026 or early 2027.
Market indicators confirm a defensive bias. Miners are selling more under pressure from energy costs, while options favor puts over speculative upside, signaling cautious sentiment. Finally, the decrease in dollar liquidity, noted by Reuters, illustrates a tightening of funding and a reduction in risk appetite, restraining any significant Bitcoin rebound.
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