Critical Delayed Data for Bitcoin
The 43-day government shutdown in the United States has caused an unprecedented backlog in the economic calendar. On Tuesday, November 25 at 8:30 AM Eastern Time, markets will simultaneously receive the September retail sales and the Producer Price Index (PPI). The following day, initial jobless claims will complete this crucial trifecta. What can change for Bitcoin ?
This concentration of releases comes at a time when traders are sorely lacking visibility on the true health of the American economy. The latest retail sales showed a solid progression of 0.6% in August, while the PPI declined by 0.1%. On an annual basis, the core PPI stood at 2.8%, a level that maintained hopes for monetary easing.
For September, the consensus projects a moderate increase of 0.3% in retail sales. Any lower figure would immediately fuel speculation about an economic slowdown and strengthen the dovish camp within the Fed. This dynamic would typically benefit Bitcoin (BTC), as a dollar weakened by expectations of rate cuts generally supports cryptocurrencies.
Recent history perfectly illustrates this mechanism. Bitcoin touched seven-month lows after the release of strong employment data, triggering nearly $1 billion in outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, the second-largest negative flow ever recorded.
A Decisive Barometer for the December Fed Meeting
The Producer Price Index represents the last major inflation gauge before the October PCE report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred indicator. Markets currently assess the chances of a rate cut in December at 67.3%, but this probability could shift rapidly depending on PPI figures.
The consensus anticipates a monthly increase of 0.3% for September. Any significant acceleration, particularly in core PPI which excludes food and energy, would push rate cut expectations below the 60% threshold. This reconfiguration of expectations would mechanically strengthen the dollar and exert downward pressure on Bitcoin.
Conversely, a softer-than-expected PPI would validate the scenario of continued monetary easing. Crypto traders are particularly monitoring the evolution of wholesale prices that eventually pass through to final inflation. A moderation of upstream inflationary pressures typically constitutes a positive signal for risk assets.
The timing of this release amplifies its strategic importance. With the Christmas period significantly reducing trading volumes, any surprise could generate amplified movements in less liquid markets.
Jobless Claims: Pre-Holiday Volatility Catalyst
Wednesday’s initial jobless claims will offer the last snapshot of the labor market before the holidays. Analysts forecast 225,000 new filings for the week ending November 22, slightly above the previous 220,000.
Any notable breach of this threshold would signal a weakening labor market, historically one of the fastest catalysts for Bitcoin rebounds. The logic is simple: a faltering labor market pushes the Fed toward easing, weakens the dollar, and boosts risk appetite.
The calendar configuration adds a layer of complexity. US markets close Thursday for Thanksgiving and operate on reduced hours Friday. This diminished liquidity can significantly amplify volatility if Wednesday’s data holds surprises. Savvy crypto traders are already adjusting their positions in anticipation of these particular conditions.
Bitcoin has demonstrated heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic indicators throughout 2025. Each major release now becomes a trading event in its own right, capable of triggering movements of several percentage points within hours.
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